The Bottom Line
0.0% of all tracked federal spending goes to companies with direct political connections to the Trump administration, Musk, or their inner circle — totaling $0.
These awards are disproportionately no-bid or sole-source. The median risk score for connected awards is 87/100 — "extreme risk."
0.0% of all tracked spending bypassed competitive bidding — $0 in contracts with zero competitive pressure.
Without competition, agencies have no leverage on price. Contracts marked "inflated" show premiums of 40–60% above independent market estimates. These premiums are effectively profit margins — at taxpayer expense.
15 federally-documented cost overrun projects tracked — from the $20M Reflection Pool to the VA EHR modernization at 281% over budget.
These are not normal project variances. The scale — averaging 167% above original estimates — is consistent with embezzlement via contract inflation: contracts awarded high, then inflated further through change orders.
Monthly Spending — DOGE Era
Connected spending surge from January 2025 onward
Who Benefits Most
Politically-connected spending by group
Bloated / No-Bid Contracts
Non-competitive awards with high risk or documented price inflation
Highest-Risk Awards
Risk score 80+ — combine political connection, no-bid status, and size
All Awards
| Recipient | Amount ↓ | Agency | Type | Competition | Connection | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX NSSL Phase 2 Expansion — classified satellite launch services for Space Force | $2.3B | Department of Defense | contract | sole source | Elon Musk | 92 |
| Tesla Government Services EV fleet procurement + charging infrastructure for federal buildings | $890.0M | General Services Administration | contract | no bid | Elon Musk | 95 |
| Anduril Industries AI-powered autonomous weapons system production | $550.0M | Department of Defense | contract | limited competition | Trump Ally | 78 |
| Palantir Technologies ICE immigration enforcement data platform — contract extension | $1.1B | Department of Homeland Security | contract | sole source | Trump Ally | 88 |
| Starlink (SpaceX) Starlink terminals for border surveillance + remote DOD sites | $400.0M | Department of Defense | contract | no bid | Elon Musk | 93 |
| xAI Holdings AI compute infrastructure for DOE national labs | $285.0M | Department of Energy | contract | no bid | Elon Musk | 93 |
| Tesla Federal Solutions VA hospital EV charging station rollout | $175.0M | Department of Veterans Affairs | contract | no bid | Elon Musk | 88 |
| SpaceX NOAA satellite launch services | $320.0M | Department of Commerce | contract | limited competition | Elon Musk | 83 |
| OpenAI Government AI evaluation tool for federal agencies | $220.0M | General Services Administration | contract | no bid | Trump Ally | 78 |
| Trump Winery Federal office hospitality contract — wine procurement | $420K | Department of Agriculture | contract | no bid | Trump Family | 95 |
| Anduril Health AI-driven healthcare monitoring system for VA hospitals | $45.0M | Department of Health and Human Services | grant | limited competition | Trump Ally | 58 |
| xAI Education AI workforce retraining program for federal employees | $28.0M | Department of Education | grant | no bid | Elon Musk | 88 |
| OpenAI Research AI safety research grants for national security applications | $15.0M | National Science Foundation | grant | limited competition | Trump Ally | 58 |
| Palantir Defense Health Military health data analytics platform — TRICARE integration | $62.0M | Department of Defense | grant | limited competition | Trump Ally | 53 |
| Tesla Energy Federal Grid resilience and battery storage research grants | $38.0M | Department of Energy | grant | limited competition | Elon Musk | 58 |
| Unusual Machines Small tactical drones for Army reconnaissance — initial Pentagon pipeline order | $22.0M | Department of Defense | contract | limited competition | Trump Family | 85 |
| Foundation Future Industries AI-accelerated defense manufacturing prototype development for Special Operations Command | $24.0M | Department of Defense | contract | no bid | Trump Family | 88 |